Research Article
Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola
Table 2
The corresponding Bayes factor
and AIC about four models based on generated data from Richards model and Gompertz model.
(a) |
| Data source | | | Logistic | Gompertz | Rosenzweig | Richards |
| Richards model | Logistic | 1 | — | — | — | Gompertz | Inf | 1 | Inf | — | Rosenzweig | Inf | — | 1 | — | Richards model | 8866.4 | Inf | 144.8 | 1 | AIC | 260 | 241 | 245 | 231 |
| Gompertz model | Logistic | 1 | — | — | — | Gompertz | Inf | 1 | 19.8855 | 13.0241 | Rosenzweig | Inf | — | 1 | — | Richards model | Inf | — | Inf | 1 | AIC | 618 | 440 | 601 | 556 |
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|
(b) |
| Data source | Parameter | Mean | Std. | MC_err | Tau | Geweke |
| Richards model | | 0.3095 | 0.0335 | 3.9372e − 04 | 95.36 | 0.9923 | | 100.26 | 2.8313 | 0.0255 | 85.563 | 0.9991 | | 0.3914 | 0.0579 | 6.7027e − 04 | 95.533 | 0.9919 |
| Gompertz model | | 0.1504 | 0.0062 | 9.2746e − 05 | 60.727 | 0.9983 | | 100 | 1.8169 | 0.0249 | 62.058 | 0.9991 |
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|
— means a very small number. Inf indicates a sufficiently big number.
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