Research Article

Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Table 2

The corresponding Bayes factor and AIC about four models based on generated data from Richards model and Gompertz model.
(a)

Data source
LogisticGompertzRosenzweigRichards

Richards modelLogistic 1
Gompertz Inf1Inf
RosenzweigInf1
Richards model 8866.4Inf144.81
AIC260241245231

Gompertz modelLogistic 1
Gompertz Inf119.885513.0241
RosenzweigInf1
Richards model InfInf1
AIC618440601556

(b)

Data sourceParameterMeanStd.MC_errTauGeweke

Richards model 0.30950.03353.9372e − 0495.360.9923
100.262.83130.025585.5630.9991
0.39140.05796.7027e − 0495.5330.9919

Gompertz model0.15040.00629.2746e − 0560.7270.9983
1001.81690.024962.0580.9991

— means a very small number.
Inf indicates a sufficiently big number.