Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Table 5

The estimations of , turning point , and final size for the best model.

Data source		95% CI		95% CI	Final size	95% CI
H1N1	1.9005	(1.8869, 1.9142)		(22, 24)		(996, 1030)
West Africa	1.3522	(1.3506, 1.3537)		(226, 228)		(25630, 25958)
Guinea	1.2101	(1.2084, 1.2119)		(237, 241)		(3865, 3967)
Liberia	3.0234	(2.6063, 3.4881)		(121, 149)		(9740, 10031)
Sierra Leona	1.9018	(1.8565, 1.9478)		(157, 174)		(12515, 12750)

Denoting turning point during Sep. 25–Sep. 27, 2009.
Denoting turning point during Nov. 6–Nov. 8, 2014.
Denoting the final time during Sep. 13–Sep. 17, 2015.
Denoting turning point during Nov. 15–Nov. 19, 2014.
Denoting the final time during Dec. 24–Dec. 31, 2015.
Denoting turning point during Sep. 23–Oct. 21, 2014.
Denoting the final time during Sep. 19–Sep. 26, 2015.
Denoting turning point during Oct. 27–Nov. 12, 2014.
Denoting the final time during Dec. 15–Dec. 22, 2015.
the first stage cannot reach final size because of the beginning of the second stage.
was computed using the mean generation interval of days [11] about A/H1N1 and days [12] about Ebola.