Tactics and Strategies for Managing Ebola Outbreaks and the Salience of Immunization
Table 1
Summary of results from 20 simulations of model using the baseline data (Table S1).
Run number
Cases
Length (days)
()* 1–50
51–100
101–150
151–200
HCW
Total
17
3627
235
2.48 (26)
1.71
0.93
0.51
0.37
1
3
2949
220
2.54 (25)
1.68
0.91
0.54
0.37
1
6
2236
229
2.41 (18)
1.64
0.92
0.53
0.34
1
8
1975
201
2.21 (19)
1.63
0.93
0.49
0.36
1
16
1658
240
2.33 (18)
1.62
0.87
0.51
0.46
1
9
1598
212
2.00 (20)
1.63
0.89
0.51
0.42
1
12
1456
232
2.55 (13)
1.59
0.91
0.54
0.42
1
11
1018
222
3.17 (7)
1.57
0.89
0.61
0.38
1
Mean ≥1000
2065
224
2.46
1.63
0.91
0.53
0.39
1.00
4
790
222
2.11 (11)
1.55
0.87
0.51
0.32
1
15
742
214
2.33 (7)
1.6
0.97
0.52
0.375
1
10
682
200
2.33 (5)
1.74
0.86
0.45
0.37
1
18
501
213
1.75 (5)
1.61
0.87
0.52
0.43
1
19
454
198
1.76 (9)
1.47
0.91
0.40
0.39
1
1
273
203
1.75 (8)
1.39
0.91
0.50
0.40
1
5
235
224
1.50 (4)
1.71
0.88
0.60
0.46
1
0
128
177
1.67 (6)
1.31
0.82
0.44
0.20
0.99
Mean <1000
476
206
1.90
1.55
0.89
0.49
0.37
1.00
Index cases that fail to cause outbreaks
2, 7, 13, 14
1-2
16–28
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
is the number of individuals in the offspring distribution use to calculate . Over subsequent intervals that are 50 units of time apart, the numbers of individuals in the offspring distribution are much larger when the number of cases exceeds 1000 (a couple to several hundreds) and hence estimates for these simulations are less variable across runs.
