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Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume 2015, Article ID 794141, 10 pages
Research Article

Multivariate Radiological-Based Models for the Prediction of Future Knee Pain: Data from the OAI

1Grupo de Investigación en Bioinformática, Escuela de Medicina, Tecnológico de Monterrey, 64849 Monterrey, NL, Mexico
2Departamento de Investigación e Innovación, Escuela de Medicina, Tecnológico de Monterrey, 64710 Monterrey, NL, Mexico

Received 8 May 2015; Revised 29 July 2015; Accepted 4 August 2015

Academic Editor: Lei Chen

Copyright © 2015 Jorge I. Galván-Tejada et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


In this work, the potential of X-ray based multivariate prognostic models to predict the onset of chronic knee pain is presented. Using X-rays quantitative image assessments of joint-space-width (JSW) and paired semiquantitative central X-ray scores from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a case-control study is presented. The pain assessments of the right knee at the baseline and the 60-month visits were used to screen for case/control subjects. Scores were analyzed at the time of pain incidence (T-0), the year prior incidence (T-1), and two years before pain incidence (T-2). Multivariate models were created by a cross validated elastic-net regularized generalized linear models feature selection tool. Univariate differences between cases and controls were reported by AUC, C-statistics, and ODDs ratios. Univariate analysis indicated that the medial osteophytes were significantly more prevalent in cases than controls: C-stat 0.62, 0.62, and 0.61, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. The multivariate JSW models significantly predicted pain: AUC = 0.695, 0.623, and 0.620, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Semiquantitative multivariate models predicted paint with C-stat = 0.671, 0.648, and 0.645 at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Multivariate models derived from plain X-ray radiography assessments may be used to predict subjects that are at risk of developing knee pain.