Prediction Accuracy in Multivariate Repeated-Measures Bayesian Forecasting Models with Examples Drawn from Research on Sleep and Circadian Rhythms

Figure 2

MMSE predictions of the expected response from the univariate random intercept model specified in (4), and corresponding 95% confidence intervals, determined by incorporating simulated observations iteratively. The individualized Bayesian forecasting predictions begin at the population mean expected response when no individual data are used and converge to the subject’s expected individualized response as more subject-specific data are collected.