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Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume 2016, Article ID 6080814, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6080814
Research Article

Predicting Renal Failure Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease Using Integrated Intelligent Fuzzy Expert System

1Department of Environmental and Energy, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2Department of Medical Physics, School of Medicine, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz 61357-33118, Iran
3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
4Iranian Tissue Bank & Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
5Nutrition and Metabolic Diseases Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz 61357-33118, Iran

Received 12 October 2015; Accepted 13 December 2015

Academic Editor: Ezequiel López-Rubio

Copyright © 2016 Jamshid Norouzi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Background. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a covert disease. Accurate prediction of CKD progression over time is necessary for reducing its costs and mortality rates. The present study proposes an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the renal failure timeframe of CKD based on real clinical data. Methods. This study used 10-year clinical records of newly diagnosed CKD patients. The threshold value of 15 cc/kg/min/1.73 m2 of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was used as the marker of renal failure. A Takagi-Sugeno type ANFIS model was used to predict GFR values. Variables of age, sex, weight, underlying diseases, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, and GFR were initially selected for the predicting model. Results. Weight, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus as underlying disease, and current showed significant correlation with GFRs and were selected as the inputs of model. The comparisons of the predicted values with the real data showed that the ANFIS model could accurately estimate GFR variations in all sequential periods (Normalized Mean Absolute Error lower than 5%). Conclusions. Despite the high uncertainties of human body and dynamic nature of CKD progression, our model can accurately predict the GFR variations at long future periods.