Research Article

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination

Table 2

Parameter definitions for polio transmission model for military (MIL) and local (LOC) populations.

ParameterDefinitionValue (range)Source

Daily inbound rotation rate (MIL)/birth rate (LOC) for subpopulation [Array]
Daily outbound rotation rate (MIL)/background death rate (LOC) for subpopulation [Array]
Daily background casualty rate for subpopulation (MIL)[Array]
Daily proportion of inbound population with preexisting partial protection for subpopulation (MIL)[Array]
Daily (OPV) vaccination rate for subpopulation (LOC)[Array]
Effective polio transmission rate for subpopulation [Function]
Relative susceptibility of individuals0.2 (0.2–0.9)[26]
Duration of latent period for unprotected individuals3 d (3-4 d)[26, 27]
Duration of latent period for partially protected individuals4 d (3-4 d)[26, 27]
Duration of infectious period for unprotected individuals27 d (27-28 d)[26]
Duration of infectious period for partially protected individuals9 d (9–25 d)[26]
Polio mortality rate0.22 (0.02–0.30)[28]
1/duration of OPV or disease-induced immunity(See text)
Seasonal variation in polio transmission[Function]
Proportional change in polio transmission due to seasonality0.15[21]
Polio attack rate20/100,000 (0.1/1,000,000–6.8/100,000)[2932]
Daily contact rate between subpopulations and [Array][23]
Relative infectiousness of individuals0.2 (0.2–0.9)[26, 33]
sympProportion of unprotected polio cases that are symptomatic0.1[28]
importriskProbability of polio case importation from outside population0.001(See text)
importamplAmplitude of polio case importation from outside population2/100,000(See text)