Spatiotemporal Distributions and Dynamics of Human Infections with the A H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus

<div>Measure of stopping live poultry transactions in the case of HPAI. <svg height="8.8423pt" id="M340" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 30.4596 8.8423" width="30.4596pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M686 28C612 35 607 44 591 112C563 234 541 360 519 489L489 666L457 658L147 121C100 40 89 36 24 28L17 0H240L250 28C168 34 159 41 190 101L262 237H482C495 180 503 137 510 91C517 47 514 35 441 28L433 0H677L686 28ZM475 280H285L429 541H431L475 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.767,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,24.03,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg> corresponds to the stop of live poultry transactions. In this case, infections are suppressed in a short time but severe infections will occur soon after, and then the disease will be eliminated at last. The inhibition rate <i>α</i> will postpone the arrival of the peak; the inhibition rate <i>ν</i> will effectively decrease the peak value. By strengthening the two inhibition rates, the endemic in humans can be avoided. Such as, in the case of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.92533pt" id="M341" style="vertical-align:-1.57651pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 67.8051 9.92533" width="67.8051pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M545 106L524 126C493 85 467 65 455 65C438 65 427 113 405 238C448 295 498 362 543 439L533 448L478 435C453 386 423 331 398 295H395C370 404 347 448 282 448C169 448 23 309 23 153C23 54 65 -12 128 -12C203 -12 283 70 339 155H341C360 29 380 -12 411 -12C444 -12 491 11 545 106ZM333 204C265 95 210 54 169 54C137 54 113 96 113 171C113 302 191 405 252 405C301 405 318 306 333 204Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,7.385,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.528,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.062,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.325,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.565,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,42.529,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,48.769,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,55.009,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,61.249,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> infections can be effectively suppressed within 4 months. (a) Dynamics of <i>A</i> = 0 (model (<a href="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/cmmm/volume-2019/9248246/figures/#EEq41">41</a>)). (b) Impacts of <i>α</i> and <i>ν</i> in case of <i>A</i> = 0 on model (<a href="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/cmmm/volume-2019/9248246/figures/#EEq41">41</a>) for HPAI.</div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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Figure 13

Figure 13: Spatiotemporal Distributions and Dynamics of Human Infections with the A H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus 