Mathematical Analysis of Two Waves of COVID-19 Disease with Impact of Vaccination as Optimal Control

<div>Time history of unrevealed infected population <svg height="12.5794pt" id="M338" style="vertical-align:-3.29107pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 19.4062 12.5794" width="19.4062pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.217,3.132)"><path d="M528 97L513 125C484 95 440 68 431 68C425 68 421 76 427 107C449 227 476 342 505 451H495L418 424L385 278C338 191 220 62 157 62C145 62 133 76 145 130L200 368C215 434 210 451 183 451C157 451 92 418 24 352L37 324C78 356 106 377 115 377C123 377 122 364 116 340L64 115C58 89 56 68 56 52C56 2 78 -12 103 -12C127 -12 159 -4 190 18C247 59 309 113 366 187H368L351 108C328 1 348 -12 368 -12C403 -12 472 33 528 97Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.757,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg> and known infected population of the second wave <svg height="12.5794pt" id="M339" style="vertical-align:-3.29107pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 19.0134 12.5794" width="19.0134pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.217,3.132)"><path d="M485 418C485 434 469 451 441 451C389 451 312 387 255 335C221 304 194 278 159 242H157L259 678C264 698 264 710 255 710C242 710 183 681 96 673L90 643L128 642C165 641 171 640 162 602L24 -5L31 -12C51 -4 81 4 110 9L145 181C154 195 180 220 205 242C233 170 263 106 291 53C318 1 335 -12 360 -12C383 -12 425 0 483 82L463 105C437 79 411 57 400 57C388 57 378 68 355 110C329 156 288 244 268 298C299 333 355 376 405 376C426 376 440 373 448 368C453 365 465 368 468 373C477 386 485 405 485 418Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.364,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg> for <span class="nowrap"><svg height="14.7272pt" id="M340" style="vertical-align:-3.2911pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.4361 63.2704 14.7272" width="63.2704pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.071,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.649,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.912,0)"><path d="M137 343C167 482 260 545 321 574C357 591 397 603 429 609L423 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493L60 455L257 254L60 54L96 16L294 217L492 16L528 54Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,45.594,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,51.834,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,58.074,-5.741)"><path d="M453 623H65C60 580 56 530 46 472H80C103 538 110 548 175 548H389C310 380 195 168 90 0L98 -12L175 -2C273 206 366 408 462 610L453 623Z"></path></g></svg> in India.</div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

fig11

Figure 11

Figure 11: Mathematical Analysis of Two Waves of COVID-19 Disease with Impact of Vaccination as Optimal Control 