Model of Epidemic Kinetics with a Source on the Example of Moscow

<div>Parametric graph <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M116" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 33.4793 12.4698" width="33.4793pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M701 19C676 22 658 29 646 41C635 53 622 76 607 111L361 674H341L135 186C104 113 83 67 70 49C57 32 37 22 9 19V0H208V19C159 19 138 29 138 60C138 73 141 87 147 102L193 216H455L496 122C509 93 515 69 515 52C515 41 510 33 501 28C491 22 473 19 446 19V0H701V19ZM210 256L325 532L441 256H210Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.269,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.767,0)"><path d="M822 650H589L583 622C660 617 677 607 674 561C672 534 664 481 647 390L600 137H596L273 650H126L120 622C176 620 194 615 207 594C221 571 225 557 214 504L161 257C141 166 129 112 121 85C108 42 83 30 29 28L23 0H260L266 28C193 33 173 42 176 89C178 122 186 172 202 255L256 527H259L583 -8H612L690 390C708 481 720 535 728 558C744 603 756 619 816 622L822 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,23.829,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.776,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg>:</span> thick curve, first wave; thin curve, the second wave; the dotted line, the third wave; points–stationary relation (<a href="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/cmmm/volume-2022/6145242/figures/#EEq4">9</a>) with a coefficient<span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.1253pt" id="M117" style="vertical-align:-2.15064pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.97466 61.0299 12.1253" width="61.0299pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,2.175,0)"><path d="M480 416C480 431 465 448 438 448C388 448 312 383 252 330C217 299 188 273 155 237H153L257 680C262 700 263 712 253 712C240 712 183 684 97 674L92 648L126 647C166 646 172 645 163 606L23 -6L29 -12C51 -5 77 2 107 8C115 62 130 128 142 180C153 193 179 220 204 241C231 170 259 106 288 54C317 0 336 -12 358 -12C381 -12 423 2 477 80L460 100C434 74 408 54 398 54C385 54 374 65 351 107C326 154 282 241 263 299C296 332 351 377 403 377C424 377 436 372 445 368C449 366 456 368 462 375C472 386 480 402 480 416Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.714,-5.741)"><path d="M414 156C366 87 330 62 273 62C227 62 190 80 161 116C132 153 118 200 118 257C118 361 173 432 254 432C290 432 302 420 313 383L319 361C328 330 344 315 367 315C392 315 414 334 414 357C414 385 399 409 368 429C338 450 302 460 260 460C211 460 166 443 125 409C69 362 41 297 41 212C41 147 59 94 94 52C130 11 176 -10 231 -10C274 -10 312 4 346 32C372 53 399 91 428 147L414 156Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.01,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.272,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.512,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.874,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,46.114,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,52.354,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

Model of Epidemic Kinetics with a Source on the Example of Moscow

Figure 4