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Volume 2017, Article ID 7354642, 15 pages
Research Article

Empirical Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling of the Lithuanian Parliamentary Elections

Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania

Correspondence should be addressed to Aleksejus Kononovicius; tl.uv.iaft@suicivononok.sujeskela

Received 31 August 2017; Accepted 9 November 2017; Published 29 November 2017

Academic Editor: Gilberto C. Gonzalez-Parra

Copyright © 2017 Aleksejus Kononovicius. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


We analyze a parties’ vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008, and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta distribution. To reproduce this empirical observation, we propose a simple multistate agent-based model of the voting behavior. In the proposed model, agents change the party they vote for either idiosyncratically or due to a linear recruitment mechanism. We use the model to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the election of 1992. We discuss model extensions needed to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the other elections.