Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity

<div>As Figure <a href="../fig3/">3</a>, but for dimension <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.55521pt" id="M262" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 34.1002 8.55521" width="34.1002pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M495 86L479 114C446 82 419 66 409 66C401 66 401 72 406 97C420 166 436 231 453 297C489 435 454 448 428 448C406 448 384 439 354 422C305 394 222 327 161 247H159L183 345C200 415 194 448 173 448C143 448 82 410 23 351L38 325C64 349 95 371 105 371C111 371 116 365 109 336L25 -4L31 -12C50 -4 77 3 107 9C119 69 132 122 145 168C197 254 321 381 370 381C387 381 393 374 378 305L329 95C309 17 320 -12 345 -12C372 -12 430 19 495 86Z" id="g113-111"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.158,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.421,0)"><path d="M412 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309 442 300 443 226H471L510 422H482C452 354 449 348 357 348H251L295 575C302 609 304 615 338 615H426C502 615 517 604 526 581C534 560 536 524 537 492L565 494C574 554 583 631 584 650Z" id="g113-71"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.527,0)"><path d="M537 353L508 390C487 357 455 333 417 333C389 333 344 353 309 370C265 391 212 414 172 414C122 414 79 382 50 340L81 307C101 339 134 364 172 364C198 364 245 343 280 326C324 305 375 283 417 283C466 283 507 314 537 353ZM537 168L508 205C487 172 455 148 417 148C389 148 344 168 309 185C265 206 212 229 172 229C122 229 79 197 50 155L81 122C101 154 134 179 172 179C198 179 245 158 280 141C324 120 375 98 417 98C466 98 507 129 537 168Z" id="g117-132"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.79,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z" id="g113-52"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.03,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.994,0)"><path d="M137 343C167 482 260 545 321 574C357 591 397 603 429 609L423 641C382 634 335 622 295 608C189 570 37 457 37 238C37 84 125 -12 242 -12C362 -12 447 89 447 209C447 311 374 393 267 393C247 393 226 386 204 376L137 343ZM227 337C318 337 361 256 361 173C361 105 336 22 258 22C176 22 126 120 126 240C126 266 127 291 132 310C155 323 189 337 227 337Z" id="g113-55"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.234,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z" id="g113-52"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.475,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z" id="g113-58"></path></g></svg> which in turn bifurcates into a 3-torus attractor at <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.8423pt" id="M264" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 50.9722 8.8423" width="50.9722pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M584 650H137L131 622C214 614 217 612 200 521L125 127C109 41 101 35 23 28L17 0H288L294 28C201 35 193 42 209 128L242 309H348C440 309 442 300 443 226H471L510 422H482C452 354 449 348 357 348H251L295 575C302 609 304 615 338 615H426C502 615 517 604 526 581C534 560 536 524 537 492L565 494C574 554 583 631 584 650Z" id="g113-71"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.527,0)"><path d="M537 353L508 390C487 357 455 333 417 333C389 333 344 353 309 370C265 391 212 414 172 414C122 414 79 382 50 340L81 307C101 339 134 364 172 364C198 364 245 343 280 326C324 305 375 283 417 283C466 283 507 314 537 353ZM537 168L508 205C487 172 455 148 417 148C389 148 344 168 309 185C265 206 212 229 172 229C122 229 79 197 50 155L81 122C101 154 134 179 172 179C198 179 245 158 280 141C324 120 375 98 417 98C466 98 507 129 537 168Z" id="g117-132"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.79,0)"><path d="M285 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-15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z" id="g113-58"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.478,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g></svg>.</span> At <svg height="8.8423pt" id="M265" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 50.9722 8.8423" width="50.9722pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M584 650H137L131 622C214 614 217 612 200 521L125 127C109 41 101 35 23 28L17 0H288L294 28C201 35 193 42 209 128L242 309H348C440 309 442 300 443 226H471L510 422H482C452 354 449 348 357 348H251L295 575C302 609 304 615 338 615H426C502 615 517 604 526 581C534 560 536 524 537 492L565 494C574 554 583 631 584 650Z" id="g113-71"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.527,0)"><path d="M537 353L508 390C487 357 455 333 417 333C389 333 344 353 309 370C265 391 212 414 172 414C122 414 79 382 50 340L81 307C101 339 134 364 172 364C198 364 245 343 280 326C324 305 375 283 417 283C466 283 507 314 537 353ZM537 168L508 205C487 172 455 148 417 148C389 148 344 168 309 185C265 206 212 229 172 229C122 229 79 197 50 155L81 122C101 154 134 179 172 179C198 179 245 158 280 141C324 120 375 98 417 98C466 98 507 129 537 168Z" id="g117-132"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.79,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 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407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z" id="g113-52"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.474,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g></svg> a chaotic attractor is detected.</div>

Complexity

fig14

Figure 14

Figure 14: Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity 