Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model

Figure 8

Reported cases of chickenpox from week 4 to week 52, 2012 (solid points), and point forecasts obtained with the Bayesian stochastic SEIR model in discrete time proposed in this paper (solid lined), the stochastic model in discrete time with a deterministic seasonal transmission rate (dashed line) and the deterministic continuous-time model with a seasonal transmission rate and heterogeneous mixing (dotted line).