Anticipating Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning

<div><b>Return on investment over time.</b> The daily return on investment for Bitcoin (orange line) and the average for currencies with volume larger than <svg height="14.7272pt" id="M23" style="vertical-align:-3.2911pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.4361 55.1875 14.7272" width="55.1875pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M697 650H468L461 623L492 619C539 613 547 605 518 546C481 471 367 264 278 116H276C239 278 197 500 186 567C180 604 185 613 226 619L252 623L260 650H24L17 623C78 617 92 613 108 533L216 -11H247C365 200 515 462 560 529C616 612 624 615 689 623L697 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.332,3.132)"><path d="M781 91L765 118C733 86 702 70 693 70C686 70 685 77 692 106L738 297C772 439 736 451 712 451S675 445 647 431C605 410 526 356 452 257H450L459 294C491 426 459 451 429 451C403 451 386 445 361 431C312 404 239 343 170 253H168L188 333C208 411 205 451 175 451C148 451 85 417 24 346L39 318C57 338 100 374 112 374C120 374 122 372 115 339C91 226 62 112 28 -6L37 -12C59 -4 87 3 114 6C125 68 142 127 154 168C184 227 316 383 372 383C397 383 396 366 381 289C362 192 338 92 312 -6L317 -12C339 -5 367 3 396 6L434 170C468 234 598 383 650 383C668 383 676 369 664 319L609 90C593 23 600 -12 629 -12C654 -12 722 23 781 91Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.904,3.132)"><path d="M250 606C250 634 233 656 203 656C168 656 146 618 146 593C146 564 169 545 192 545C227 545 250 573 250 606ZM227 95L212 119C187 98 152 71 135 71C129 71 128 78 134 102L207 373C219 418 217 451 194 451C165 451 92 411 30 351L44 326C77 353 106 371 114 371C124 371 121 357 117 341L55 97C32 5 46 -12 70 -12C108 -12 191 51 227 95Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.452,3.132)"><path d="M504 89L488 119C453 85 428 69 416 69C408 69 405 75 412 102L462 304C492 438 460 451 436 451S388 441 356 423C311 397 229 336 170 256H168L189 340C208 418 200 451 177 451C144 451 82 413 24 352L40 322C65 345 98 369 108 369C114 369 119 363 112 335L28 -3L36 -12C54 -3 83 4 112 10C125 73 138 122 153 174C205 258 328 382 376 382C395 382 399 369 384 305L330 93C312 25 323 -12 351 -12C378 -12 439 21 504 89Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.296,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.559,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,43.799,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,50.039,-5.741)"><path d="M158 548H390L417 615L410 623H122L83 318C105 326 143 337 185 337C296 337 350 275 350 188C350 116 308 42 225 42C164 42 122 74 100 93C90 101 82 99 72 92C60 82 51 68 50 59C48 46 52 38 66 24C82 9 125 -12 172 -12C225 -11 292 15 346 59C408 108 437 166 437 226C437 309 371 397 242 397C214 397 170 382 133 369L158 548Z"></path></g></svg> USD (blue line). Their average value across time (dashed lines) is larger than <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.55521pt" id="M24" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 6.36303 8.55521" width="6.36303pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> For visualization purposes, curves are averaged over a rolling window of <svg height="8.55521pt" id="M25" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 12.6264 8.55521" width="12.6264pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg> days.</div>

Complexity

Anticipating Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning

Figure 2