Analyzing Policymaking for Tuberculosis Control in Nigeria

Figure 7

Hypothesis 3: changes in latent tuberculosis with respect to an increase in notification rate or in effective treatment. (a) Simulated dynamics of the latently infected population (LTBI) with different notification levels, with all other parameters kept constant in the population of Nigeria. The red curve shows the LTBI population that remained constant for more than 20 years, thereby producing new sick people constantly. With an increase in notification up to 30%, the pool of the LTBI starts decreasing (blue curve), and a further increase in notification shows a much higher decrease in the pool of LTBI (black curve, 85% notification rate). (b) Simulation of the LTBI population with improvement in effective treatment, with all other parameters kept constant in the population of Nigeria. There is little or no change in the number of LTBI cases before and after increasing the effective treatment.

(a)

(b)