A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China

Figure 4

The simulating results and the real time series. The parameters for the best fit of the local series in each province are provided on top of each figure. The blue curves are obtained from our model with the average of 50 trials. The black curves are the original time series. (a) Anhui (α = 0.8 and λ = 0.4). (b) Henan (α = 0.1 and λ = 1.0). (c) Jiangsu (α = 0.7 and λ = 0.2). (d) Zhejiang (α = 0.1 and λ = 0.1).

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