Booms and Busts in the Oil Market: Identifying Speculative Bubbles Using a Continuous-Time Dynamic System

<table class="table-group" id="tab1"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Unstable</td><td class="align_center">Locally explosive</td><td class="align_center">Explosive</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Aug. 2005-Sep. 2005</td><td class="align_center">Dec. 2007–Sep. 2008</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left" rowspan="2">Jan. 2006–Mar. 2020</td><td class="align_center">Jun. 2009–Oct. 2014</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr><td class="align_center">Jun. 2018–Sep. 2018</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Time horizons of unstable and explosive periods identified by models assuming no endogeneity.</div>

Complexity

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Table 1

Table 1: Booms and Busts in the Oil Market: Identifying Speculative Bubbles Using a Continuous-Time Dynamic System 