Booms and Busts in the Oil Market: Identifying Speculative Bubbles Using a Continuous-Time Dynamic System

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Unstable</td><td class="align_center">Locally explosive</td><td class="align_center">Explosive</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">May. 2008–Jul. 2008</td><td class="align_center">—</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Dec. 2010–Oct. 2014</td><td class="align_center">—</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Nov. 2016–Apr. 2017</td><td class="align_center">—</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Jul. 2017–Feb. 2020</td><td class="align_center">—</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Time horizons of unstable and explosive periods detected by models with endogeneity.</div>

Complexity

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: Booms and Busts in the Oil Market: Identifying Speculative Bubbles Using a Continuous-Time Dynamic System 