Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China

Table 4

Variance decomposition analysis.

Period	S.E.	LOGF	PPI	LOGP	LOGS	LOGSS	LOGW
1	0.041035	0.729212	9.299317	89.97147	0	0	0
2	0.052049	7.701295	9.956613	78.18305	0.080677	2.045599	2.032769
3	0.05851	12.06564	9.293601	70.85491	0.191851	5.118254	2.475737
4	0.073097	13.37388	10.90689	66.4985	0.588931	6.204526	2.427272
5	0.094675	12.9068	19.39546	59.33157	0.530491	5.646364	2.189317
6	0.11771	10.38902	36.39546	45.83592	1.490347	4.238021	1.651235
7	0.138359	7.231468	51.05857	34.6953	2.74231	3.178658	1.093694
8	0.155671	4.972065	59.05059	28.80485	3.467079	2.8815	0.823913
9	0.169861	3.748737	62.73128	25.76903	3.893932	2.944914	0.912112
10	0.180673	3.098593	64.30301	24.07398	4.181891	3.1136	1.228928
11	0.1876	2.72994	64.80983	23.17257	4.364957	3.311099	1.611612
12	0.191171	2.526387	64.76071	22.79765	4.468586	3.496792	1.949877
13	0.192665	2.422941	64.49293	22.74554	4.511523	3.641249	2.185818
14	0.193143	2.376791	64.20818	22.85348	4.511951	3.738696	2.310902
15	0.193264	2.361875	63.99327	22.99525	4.496838	3.797168	2.355594