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Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2016, Article ID 1840673, 8 pages
Research Article

Minimizing Investment Risk of Integrated Rail and Transit-Oriented-Development Projects over Years in a Linear Monocentric City

1College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
2State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
3School of Transport & Logistics, Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning 116024, China

Received 31 May 2016; Accepted 16 August 2016

Academic Editor: Paolo Renna

Copyright © 2016 Ding Liu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Rail and transit-oriented-development (TOD) projects are simultaneously optimized in this paper, with special consideration given to yearly variation and spatial and temporal correlation of population densities. In the proposed model, the objective is to minimize the investment risk of integrated rail and TOD projects with a given required expected return on investment. The investment risk is optimized based on closed-form solutions of the design variables, including rail line length, the number of TOD projects, and the number of housing units in each TOD project. The closed-form solutions are given explicitly under the assumption of social welfare maximization. It is found that underestimation exists for rail and TOD projects without consideration of the correlation of spatial and temporal population densities. TOD projects can greatly improve the return on investment of the rail operator. A numerical example is also presented.