Research Article

New JLS-Factor Model versus the Standard JLS Model: A Case Study on Chinese Stock Bubbles

Table 2

Prediction of the critical time of the SZSC bubbles burst for both models and their differences with the actual times of bubble burst.

ItemEstimated time interval
2005/7/11–2008/10/172008/11/3–2009/8/312014/3/13–2015/7/29

The actual time of bubble burst2007/10/31 ( = 107.83)2009/8/4 ( = 109.59)2015/6/12 ( = 115.45)
The predicted critical time of the original JLS model2007/11/22 ( = 107.89)2009/7/28 ( = 109.57)2015/6/3 ( = 115.42)
The difference between the original JLS model and actual time (days)−2279
The predicted critical time of the new JLS model2007/11/26 ( = 107.90)2009/8/3 ( = 109.59)2015/6/8 ( = 115.43)
The difference between the new JLS model and actual time (days)−2614

Value in parentheses is the predicted critical time .