Research Article
New JLS-Factor Model versus the Standard JLS Model: A Case Study on Chinese Stock Bubbles
Table 2
Prediction of the critical time of the SZSC bubbles burst for both models and their differences with the actual times of bubble burst.
| Item | Estimated time interval | 2005/7/11–2008/10/17 | 2008/11/3–2009/8/31 | 2014/3/13–2015/7/29 |
| The actual time of bubble burst | 2007/10/31 ( = 107.83) | 2009/8/4 ( = 109.59) | 2015/6/12 ( = 115.45) | The predicted critical time of the original JLS model | 2007/11/22 ( = 107.89) | 2009/7/28 ( = 109.57) | 2015/6/3 ( = 115.42) | The difference between the original JLS model and actual time (days) | −22 | 7 | 9 | The predicted critical time of the new JLS model | 2007/11/26 ( = 107.90) | 2009/8/3 ( = 109.59) | 2015/6/8 ( = 115.43) | The difference between the new JLS model and actual time (days) | −26 | 1 | 4 |
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Value in parentheses is the predicted critical time .
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