Learning Evolutionary Stages with Hidden Semi-Markov Model for Predicting Social Unrest Events

Figure 3

The proposed HSMM-based social unrest event prediction framework: two HSMMs are trained, with one for -prone sequences and one for -free sequences. -prone sequences consist of observations (BoEAG feature) within a time window of length preceding a social unrest event by lead time . -free sequences consist of observations at times when no social unrest event was imminent. is the time the prediction performed at. is the prediction period.