The Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Mortality and the Business Cycle in Canada

Table 3

Modified error correction model (3). Total death rate.

	Without dummy variable			With dummy variable
	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic
Short-run results
Constant	1.574	0.722	2.181	2.378	0.831	2.860
ΔUR𝑡	−0.074	0.033	−2.204	−0.072	0.033	−2.215
ΔrGDPpc𝑡	−7.51𝐸−05	5.81𝐸−05	−1.292	−9.50𝐸−05	5.76𝐸−05	−1.649
ΔrHEpc𝑡	−6.70𝐸−05	3.28𝐸−04	−0.204	−1.98𝐸−04	3.28𝐸−04	−0.606
ΔUR𝑡−1	−0.001	0.034	−0.028	−0.012	0.034	−0.356
ΔrGDPpc𝑡−1	2.11𝐸−05	6.90𝐸−05	0.305	4.99𝐸−06	6.77𝐸−05	0.074
ΔrHEpc𝑡−1	−5.74𝐸−05	3.31𝐸−04	−0.174	−6.19𝐸−06	3.23𝐸−04	−0.019
ΔUR𝑡−2	−6.83𝐸−04	0.030	−0.023	−0.015	0.030	−0.495
ΔrGDPpc𝑡−2	1.06𝐸−05	6.17𝐸−05	0.172	−6.16𝐸−06	6.07𝐸−05	−0.102
ΔrHEpc𝑡−2	4.31𝐸−05	3.17𝐸−04	0.136	1.27𝐸−04	3.12𝐸−04	0.408
DR𝑡−1 (𝜑1=𝛽1)	−0.193	0.078	−2.464	−0.302	0.097	−3.106
UR𝑡−1 (𝛽2)	−0.007	0.015	−0.493	−0.006	0.016	0.359
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝛽3)	−5.02𝐸−06	3.32𝐸−05	−0.151	6.36𝐸−06	3.29𝐸−05	0.193
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝛽4)	1.89𝐸−05	0.001	0.074	−1.75𝐸−04	0.001	−0.646
Dummy				0.016	0.009	1.803
	AIC = −1.391	𝑅-square = 0.482		AIC = −3.055	𝑅-square = 0.770
	SSR = 0.505	𝐹-statistic = 3.549		SSR = 0.059	𝐹-statistic = 4.634
	DW = 2.607	LM 𝐹-stat = 2.852		DW = 2.546	LM 𝐹-stat = 2.829
Long-run results
UR𝑡−1 (𝜑2)	−0.038	0.078	−0.487	−0.019	0.054	−0.354
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝜑3)	−2.60𝐸−05	1.72𝐸−04	−0.151	2.11𝐸−05	1.09𝐸−04	0.193
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝜑4)	9.78𝐸−05	1.35𝐸−04	0.073	−5.80𝐸−04	1.01𝐸−03	−0.573