The Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Mortality and the Business Cycle in Canada

Table 4

Error correction model (4). Female death rate.

	Without dummy variable			With dummy variable
	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic
Short-run results
Constant	0.996	0.322	3.096	1.226	0.373	3.288
ΔUR𝑡	−0.058	0.017	−3.521	−0.065	0.017	−3.737
ΔrGDPpc𝑡	−5.46𝐸−05	3.07𝐸−05	−2.107	−7.22𝐸−05	3.12𝐸−05	−2.318
ΔrHEpc𝑡	6.30𝐸−05	2.00𝐸−04	0.338	1.07𝐸−04	1.89𝐸−04	0.566
DR𝑡−1 (𝜑1=𝛽1)	−0.236	0.074	−3.212	−0.269	0.078	−3.445
UR𝑡−1 (𝛽2)	−0.016	0.008	−1.859	−0.023	0.010	−2.221
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝛽3)	−2.34𝐸−05	1.46𝐸−05	−1.602	−3.31𝐸−05	1.66𝐸−05	−1.992
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝛽4)	1.08𝐸−05	1.10𝐸−04	0.985	1.53𝐸−04	1.15𝐸−04	1.330
Dummy				0.059	0.049	1.206
	AIC = −2.248	𝑅-squared = 0.372		AIC = −2.243	𝑅-squared = 0.391
	SSR = 0.254	𝐹-statistic = 3.978		SSR = 0.247	𝐹-statistic = 3.696
	DW = 1.979	LM 𝐹-stat = 1.308		DW = 1.961	LM 𝐹-stat = 1.263
Long-run results
UR𝑡−1 (φ 2)	−0.067	0.028	−2.382	−0.085	0.028	−3.047
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (φ 3)	−9.92𝐸−05	6.18𝐸−05	−1.604	−1.23𝐸−05	5.86𝐸−05	−2.099
rHEpc𝑡−1 (φ 4)	0.001	1.05𝐸−03	0.947	5.68𝐸−04	4.38𝐸−04	1.297