Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions?

<table>Yearly Changed GDP (Case of JPY/USD). Note: this figure shows the yearly changed GDP in the case of JPY/USD, which is calculated as <svg height="14.7484pt" id="M209" style="vertical-align:-4.222pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.5264 260.685 14.7484" width="260.685pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M600 0V24L339 665L311 657L43 24V0H600ZM497 50H107L303 539L497 50Z" id="g113-133"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="641" vert-adv-y="641"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,8.678,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,19.3,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,26.886,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,38.624,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,43.312,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,53.933,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,60.763,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H52V230H535Z" id="g117-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,71.744,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,82.365,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,85.656,3.264)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z" id="g54-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,91.451,3.264)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,96.069,3.264)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,101.255,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,105.942,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z" id="g113-48"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="412" vert-adv-y="412"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,111.529,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,122.151,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,125.442,3.264)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z" id="g54-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,131.237,3.264)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,135.855,3.264)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,144.069,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H52V230H535Z" id="g117-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,155.049,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,159.737,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,170.427,-5.984)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z" id="g50-43"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,170.359,3.944)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,179.769,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H52V230H535Z" id="g117-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,190.75,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,201.44,-5.984)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z" id="g50-43"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,201.372,3.944)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,204.663,3.944)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z" id="g54-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,210.457,3.944)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,215.076,3.944)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,220.261,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,224.949,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z" id="g113-48"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="412" vert-adv-y="412"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,230.536,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,241.226,-5.984)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z" id="g50-43"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,241.158,3.944)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,244.449,3.944)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z" id="g54-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,250.243,3.944)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,254.862,3.944)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg> and examined in Section <a href="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/ecri/volume-2014/746956/figures/#sec5.2.2">5.2.2</a> threshold modelling. See the text for more details.</table>

Economics Research International

fig2

Figure 2

Figure 2: Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions? 