Estimation of Risk Thresholds for a Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on a KDE-Copula-VaR Approach

<table class="table-group" id="tab4"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left"></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 34.0143ptpx;"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M89" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 34.0143 12.7178" width="34.0143pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.7,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.646,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.79,0)"><path d="M556 393C556 426 537 448 514 448C496 448 478 435 471 420C468 414 462 401 466 394C473 382 480 368 480 346C480 268 392 143 338 67H336C329 163 319 253 309 330S286 448 254 448C215 448 160 383 127 337L143 311C167 344 200 373 208 373S222 365 229 320C246 214 264 66 268 -20C219 -83 131 -171 17 -239L25 -261L137 -235C248 -110 273 -79 335 8C384 77 481 215 520 287C544 332 556 363 556 393Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.319,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 34.0143ptpx;"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M90" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 34.0143 12.7178" width="34.0143pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.7,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.646,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.79,0)"><path d="M556 393C556 426 537 448 514 448C496 448 478 435 471 420C468 414 462 401 466 394C473 382 480 368 480 346C480 268 392 143 338 67H336C329 163 319 253 309 330S286 448 254 448C215 448 160 383 127 337L143 311C167 344 200 373 208 373S222 365 229 320C246 214 264 66 268 -20C219 -83 131 -171 17 -239L25 -261L137 -235C248 -110 273 -79 335 8C384 77 481 215 520 287C544 332 556 363 556 393Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.319,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Kendall’s tau</td><td class="align_center">0.3812</td><td class="align_center">-0.3689</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Spearman’s rho</td><td class="align_center">0.5675</td><td class="align_center">-0.5399</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>The correlation coefficients between the hydrological variables and the landslide velocity.</div>

Geofluids

tab4

Table 4

Table 4: Estimation of Risk Thresholds for a Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on a KDE-Copula-VaR Approach 