Proposal of Two Prognostic Models for the Prediction of 10-Year Survival after Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases
Table 1
Shown are the results of univariable binary logistic regression to determine the influence of each preoperative variable on 10-year survival after liver resection. Odds ratios greater than 1 with a significant p value (p<0.05) indicate variables that increase the risk of mortality within 10 years significantly whereas odds ratios smaller than 1 with a significant p value indicate variables that decrease the risk of mortality within 10 years.
Variables
Odds Ratio
95-Confidence interval
p-value
Pre-operative variables
Female gender (yes/no)
0.986
0.687 – 1.416
0.941
Male gender (yes/no)
1.014
0.706 – 1.455
0.941
Age at operation of primary tumor (years)
1.029
1.013 – 1.046
<0.001
Age at liver resection (years)
1.028
1.012 – 1.045
<0.001
Time between resection of primary tumor and resection of metastases (days)
1.000
0.999 – 1.000
0.900
Localization of primary tumor
Coecum (yes/no)
2.119
0.902 – 4.980
0.058
Colon ascendens (Yes/no)
0.895
0.528 – 1.517
0.683
Colon transversum (yes/no)
1.061
0.438 – 2.570
0.895
Colon descendens (yes/no)
1.136
0.568 – 2.269
0.715
Colon sigmoideum (yes/no)
0.659
0.462 – 0.941
0.023
Rectum (yes/no)
1.314
0.891 – 1.939
0.162
Stage and grading of primary tumor
pT1-4 (ordinal scale)
not determined
0.004
pT1 vs. pT2
0.965
0.375 – 2.478
0.940
pT1 vs. pT3
0.610
0.255 – 1.454
0.264
pT1 vs. pT4
0.214
0.069 – 0.670
0.008
pN0-2b (ordinal scale)
not determined
0.034
pN0 vs. pN1
0.587
0.380 – 0.906
0.016
pN0 vs. pN2a
0.551
0.335 – 0.907
0.019
pN0 vs. pN2b
0.912
0.385 – 2.158
0.834
M1 (yes/no)
1.489
1.017 – 2.181
0.038
Grading G1-3 (ordinal scale)
not determined
0.012
Grading G1 vs. G2
0.324
0.140 – 0.750
0.009
Grading G1 vs. G3
0.162
0.054 – 0.481
0.001
UICC I-IV (ordinal scale)
not determined
0.016
UICC I vs. IIa
0.438
0.227 – 0.844
0.014
UICC I vs. IIb
0.206
0.025 – 1.687
0.141
UICC I vs. IIIa
0.452
0.166 – 1.235
0.122
UICC I vs. IIIb
0.312
0.154 – 0.633
0.001
UICC I vs. IIIc
0.422
0.207 – 0.862
0.018
UICC I vs. IV
0.318
0.178 – 0.567
<0.001
Chemotherapy of primary tumor (yes/no)
1.831
1.281 – 2.618
<0.001
Radiotherapy of primary tumor (yes/no)
1.847
0.991 – 3.444
0.039
Local recurrence of primary tumor (yes/no)
1.229
0.617 – 2.447
0.549
Simultaneous resection of primary tumor and liver metastases (yes/no)
