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International Journal of Agronomy
Volume 2012, Article ID 795162, 7 pages
Research Article

A Predictive Model for Daily Inoculum Levels of Gibberella zeae in Passo Fundo, Brazil

Embrapa Wheat, P.O. Box 451, 99001-970 Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil

Received 2 December 2011; Revised 29 February 2012; Accepted 20 March 2012

Academic Editor: María Rosa Simón

Copyright © 2012 Marcio Nicolau and J. M. C. Fernandes. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The deposition of spores of Gibberella zeae, the causal agent of Fusarium head blight of wheat, was monitored during 2008–2011, in Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil. The sampling was carried out in a 31-day period around wheat flowering. The numbers of colonies formed were related to meteorological variables. In this study, a hierarchical autoregressive binary data model was used. The model relates a binary response variable to potential covariates while accounting for dependence over discrete time points. This paper proposes an approach for both model parameter inference and prediction at future time points using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The developed model appeared to have a high degree of accuracy and may have implications in the disease control and risk-management planning.