Table of Contents
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 201695, 11 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/201695
Research Article

Impact of Climate Change on the Characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset

1Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, India
2Qatar Meteorology Department, Doha, Qatar

Received 23 April 2014; Revised 12 August 2014; Accepted 26 August 2014; Published 14 September 2014

Academic Editor: Bodo Ahrens

Copyright © 2014 Savita Patwardhan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

A high resolution regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies), developed by Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK, is applied for Indian subcontinent to assess the impact of climate change on the summer monsoon onset characteristics. The present day simulation (1961–1990) with PRECIS is evaluated for the characteristics of onset over Kerala, southernmost part of India, where the monsoon sets in over Indian landmass. The meteorological parameters like precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), and low level winds are analysed to study the monsoon onset over Kerala. The model is able to capture the sudden and sharp increase of rainfall associated with the onset. The rapid built-up of convective activity over the southeastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is well represented by the model. PRECIS simulations, under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols, are analysed to study the likely changes in the onset characteristics in future, towards the end of present century (2071–2100). The analysis does not indicate significant difference in the mean onset dates in A2 and B2 scenarios. However, the variability of onset date is likely to be more towards the end of the 21st century especially in A2 scenario.