| | Scenario A: optimistic scenario | | (i) Impacts of climate change are not perceived in the upper Akkar region neither on the social nor on the ecological level for the 20 coming years.
(ii) All stakeholders are actively involved in the management of the area’s natural resources (mainly forests and water) through an active participatory planning.
(iii) Sociopolitical situation is stable.
(iv) Financial resources and funds are available for the implementation of sustainable management actions. | The plodding impacts of climate change will not be affecting the upper Akkar social and ecological systems for at least the 20 coming years.
Neither natural ecosystems nor social systems will be affected by eventual changes in climate trends and consequently livelihood assets and ecological features are safe from climatic disturbances that could distress water availability, impact the vitality of forests, and thus impede the ability of local communities to generate income.
Municipalities, federations, local communities represented by tribes, NGOs, cooperatives, natural resources exploiters (farmers, shepherds, hunters, loggers, etc.) and end-users, women, youth, and marginalized groups are actively involved in the management of the area’s resources through an active participatory planning.
Stakeholders abide by common vision for the area and implement sustainable measures to boost their livelihoods and improve their living standards.
Sociopolitical situation in the area is stable. No social, tribal, religious, political, or transboundary tensions or conflicts exist.
Governance over natural resources management is prioritized and well organized amongst stakeholders.
Financial resources are available from municipal funds, private donations, and fundraising activities by donors ready to invest in the area and are invested in the implementation of sustainable actions aiming at the conservation of the area’s social, agricultural, and ecological assets, mainly forest conservation. |
| | Strategy A | | (1) Maintaining the use of sustainable technologies
(2) Maintaining a sustainable management of natural resources | Aims at upholding/preserving/maintaining the use of sustainable technologies and at implementing adaptive measures for environmental management to mitigate the expected impacts of climate change in a scenario where local communities and all active stakeholders are.
(i) already aware of the importance of the sustainable management of natural resource;
(ii) in constant search for funds to implement adaptive management measures. |
| | Scenario B: pessimistic scenario | | (i) Climate change impacts are currently deeply altering social and ecological systems in the upper Akkar region.
(ii) No participatory planning amongst stakeholders exists, the latters not being actively involved in the management of the area’s natural resources.
(iii) Sociopolitical situation is unstable.
(iv) Financial resources and funds are not available for the implementation of sustainable management actions. | Current impacts of climate change are deeply affecting social, agricultural, and ecological systems.
(i) Local communities’ ability to cope and adapt to climate change impacts is low, their dependency on natural resources exploitation is pronounced, and no sustainable alternative income generating activities are provided. The social system is highly vulnerable to climate change effects.
(ii) Agricultural production is affected due to water shortage, and farmers are diverting from agriculture to other income generating activities such as livestock production (grazing), hunting, quarrying, and other unsustainable practices. Forest resources are progressively depleted and their sustainability is challenged.
(iii) Ecosystems functionalities are altered (water infiltration, erosion control, etc.) and their resources are exhausted (trees death, loss of biodiversity, etc.) due to global changes and heavy anthropogenic pressures.
No participatory planning amongst stakeholders exists. Governance over natural resources management is nonsystematic and overlaps between several authorities/stakeholders engendering chaos in management priorities.
No common long-term vision is identified for the area and local stakeholders do not adopt participatory planning approaches for the area’s resources management. Moreover, no solid coordination with national authorities is settled and the area is left without national strategies for development along with unenforced laws.
Sociopolitical situation is unstable and conflicts amongst stakeholders mainly on natural resources governance are pronounced. Transboundary tensions and migration of foreigners to the area affect local livelihood conditions and further threaten the social balance and the area’s natural resources. The execution and sustainability of any implemented action are therefore hindered.
A lack of financial resources to reduce the area’s vulnerability to global changes through the implementation of sustainable actions exists. Neither municipality nor private funds are made available and fundraising activities are limited. |
| | Strategy B | | (1) Upgrading livelihoods of local communities
(2) Raising awareness on sustainable exploitation and management of forests and other resources
(3) Engaging local actors in the management of the natural resources along with law enforcement (sociopolitical reform) | Aims at increasing the resilience of local communities in face of a changing, complex environment through
(i) providing them with sustainable alternative income generating activities aiming at improving their livelihoods and diverting them from unsustainable practices;
(ii) raising their awareness on environmental priorities and the importance of participatory planning for improved natural resources governance;
(iii) engaging them in decision-making processes related to natural resources management through the creation of local committees, CBOs (community based organizations), cooperatives, and so forth and empowering women, youth, and marginalized groups in such processes.
This strategy stresses providing local communities with tools and skills to combat the impacts of changes, for them to be able to track and avoid the depletion of their area’s natural resources. |
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