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International Journal of Geophysics
Volume 2012, Article ID 406278, 20 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/406278
Research Article

A Deterministic Approach to Earthquake Prediction

1Dipartimento di Fisica and Sezione INFN, Università Roma Tre, 84 Via della Vasca Navale, 00146 Roma, Italy
2Facoltà di Ingegneria, Università Telematica Internazionale UNINETTUNO, Corso Vittorio Emanuele II 39, 00186 Roma, Italy

Received 14 July 2011; Revised 27 January 2012; Accepted 6 February 2012

Academic Editor: Yamaoka Koshun

Copyright © 2012 Vittorio Sgrigna and Livio Conti. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The paper aims at giving suggestions for a deterministic approach to investigate possible earthquake prediction and warning. A fundamental contribution can come by observations and physical modeling of earthquake precursors aiming at seeing in perspective the phenomenon earthquake within the framework of a unified theory able to explain the causes of its genesis, and the dynamics, rheology, and microphysics of its preparation, occurrence, postseismic relaxation, and interseismic phases. Studies based on combined ground and space observations of earthquake precursors are essential to address the issue. Unfortunately, up to now, what is lacking is the demonstration of a causal relationship (with explained physical processes and looking for a correlation) between data gathered simultaneously and continuously by space observations and ground-based measurements. In doing this, modern and/or new methods and technologies have to be adopted to try to solve the problem. Coordinated space- and ground-based observations imply available test sites on the Earth surface to correlate ground data, collected by appropriate networks of instruments, with space ones detected on board of Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites. Moreover, a new strong theoretical scientific effort is necessary to try to understand the physics of the earthquake.