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International Journal of Geophysics
Volume 2012, Article ID 610712, 10 pages
Research Article

Spatiotemporal Relationship between Geodetic and Seismic Quantities: A Possible Clue to Preparatory Processes of M ≥ 6.0 Inland Earthquakes in Japan

1Department of Earth Sciences and Graduate Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Jhongda Road no. 300, Taoyuan, Jhongli 32001, Taiwan
2General Education Division, College of Engineering, Chubu University, Matsumoto-cho 1200, Aichi, Kasugai 487-8501, Japan
3Research Center for Seismology, Volcanology and Disaster Mitigation, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan

Received 23 June 2011; Revised 6 September 2011; Accepted 11 September 2011

Academic Editor: Rodol̀fo Console

Copyright © 2012 Masashi Kawamura et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Constructing a statistical model to characterize the physical conditions associated with large earthquake occurrence is crucial for disaster mitigation. With the aim to formulate such a model, we previously developed a statistical evaluation system which assesses the correlation of the spatiotemporal relationship between different kinds of physical quantities with the occurrence times of large inland earthquakes. In this study, we focused on assessing the relationship between geodetic and seismic quantities and attempted to find the pair of related quantities that most likely indicates preparatory processes of large earthquakes in Japan. We assessed the quantities prior to M ≥ 6.0 inland earthquakes for the period of 2001–2007 in terms of probability gains and error diagram. Our system revealed that the pair of absolute value of dilatation rate and seismic energy showed the highest statistical performance. Further validation of this result is required by updating the database of physical quantities.