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International Journal of Nephrology
Volume 2017, Article ID 2735296, 5 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/2735296
Research Article

Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040

1National Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
2Clinical Research Centre, Serdang Hospital, Kajang, Malaysia
3Department of Nephrology, Kuala Lumpur Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
4Department of Nephrology, Serdang Hospital, Kajang, Malaysia
5Malaysian Health Performance Unit, Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Correspondence should be addressed to Mohamad Adam Bujang; ym.vog.crc@mada

Received 6 June 2016; Accepted 22 December 2016; Published 28 February 2017

Academic Editor: Tej Mattoo

Copyright © 2017 Mohamad Adam Bujang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Background. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013. Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment in Malaysia until 2040. Methodology. Univariate forecasting models using the number of new and current dialysis patients, by the Malaysian Dialysis and Transplant Registry from 1993 to 2013 were used. Four forecasting models were evaluated, and the model with the smallest error was selected for the prediction. Result. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) modeling with the lowest error was selected to predict both the incidence (RMSE = 135.50, MAPE = 2.85, and MAE = 87.71) and the prevalence (RMSE = 158.79, MAPE = 1.29, and MAE = 117.21) of dialysis patients. The estimated incidences of new dialysis patients in 2020 and 2040 are 10,208 and 19,418 cases, respectively, while the estimated prevalence is 51,269 and 106,249 cases. Conclusion. The growth of ESRD patients on dialysis in Malaysia can be expected to continue at an alarming rate. Effective steps to address and curb further increase in new patients requiring dialysis are urgently needed, in order to mitigate the expected financial and health catastrophes associated with the projected increase of such patients.