Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040

Table 1

Comparison of forecast error from number of ESRD patients, 1993–2013.

Method	Incidence				Prevalence
	Parameter	RMSE	MAPE	MAE	Parameter	RMSE	MAPE	MAE
Naive with trend	—	165.12	3.73	116.37	—	195.81	1.81	160.16
Double exponential smoothing		151.33	5.64	110.87		205.96	2.72	169.47
Holt	,	135.40	3.24	90.26	,	199.78	3.09	167.14
ARIMA (0, 2, 1)	—	135.50	2.85	87.71	—	158.79	1.29	117.21