Table of Contents
International Journal of Population Research
Volume 2014, Article ID 658157, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/658157
Research Article

Population Projections for Sparsely Populated Areas: Reconciling “Error” and Context

Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia

Received 24 March 2014; Revised 4 September 2014; Accepted 5 September 2014; Published 14 September 2014

Academic Editor: Jonathan Haughton

Copyright © 2014 Andrew Taylor. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. A. Taylor, “The forecasting of remote area populations: numbers aren't everything,” in Demography at the Edge: Remote Human Populations in Developed Nations, D. Carson, R. Rasmussen, P. C. Ensign, L. Huskey, A. Taylor, and A. Taylor, Eds., pp. 39–52, A Taylor (Ashgate Publishing), Farnham, UK, 2011. View at Google Scholar
  2. T. Wilson, M. Beneforti, and T. Barnes, “Population statistics and the number of house of representative seats for the Northern Territory,” People and Place, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 65–78, 2005. View at Google Scholar
  3. A. Taylor, L. Bell, P. Axelsson, and T. Barnes, “The challenge of enumeration and population estimation in remote areas,” in Demography at the Edge: Human Populations in Developed Nations, D. Carson, R. Rasmussen, P. C. Ensign, L. Huskey, and A. Taylor, Eds., pp. 21–38, Ashgate Publishing, Farnham, UK, 2011. View at Google Scholar
  4. D. Carson, “Political economy, demography and development in Australia's Northern Territory,” Canadian Geographer, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 226–242, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  5. J. Baerenholdt and B. Granas, Mobility and Place: Enacting Northern European Peripheries, Ashgate, Farnham, UK, 2008.
  6. D. Carson, P. Ensign, R. O. Rasmussen, L. Husky, and A. Taylor, “Perspectives on‘demography at the edge’,” in Demography at the Edge: Remote Human Populations in Developed Nations, D. Carson, R. Rasmussen, P. C. Ensign, L. Huskey, and A. Taylor, Eds., pp. 3–20, Ashgate Publishing, Farnham, UK, 2011. View at Google Scholar
  7. J. Tayman, D. A. Swanson, and C. F. Barr, “In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts,” Population Research and Policy Review, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 387–410, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  8. S. Smith, J. Tayman, and D. Swanson, State and Local Projections—Methodology and Analysis, Kluwer Academic/Plenum, New York, NY, USA, 2001.
  9. T. Wilson, “The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections,” Journal of Population Research, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 91–117, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101. Cat No, 3222.0, 2013, http://www.abs.gov.au.
  11. H. Booth, “Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review,” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 547–581, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  12. J. Brett, “The country, the city and the state in the Australian settlement,” Australian Journal of Political Science, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 1–17, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  13. N. Keyfitz, “The limits of population forecasting.,” Population and Development Review, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 579–593, 1981. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  14. S. K. Smith and T. Sincich, “An empirical analysis of the effect of length of forecast horizon on population forecast errors,” Demography, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 261–274, 1991. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  15. S. K. Smith, “Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 82, no. 400, pp. 991–1003, 1987. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. Alaska Department of Labour and Workforce Development, Population Projections, 2007–2030, Alaska Department of Labour and Workforce Development, Anchorage, Alaska, USA, 2007.
  17. K. J. Zajac, “Preliminary results from the list/enumerate and remote Alaska operations for Census 2000,” in Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, US Census Bureau, August 2001.
  18. Statistics Finland, Use of Registers and Administrative Data Sources for Statistical Purposes Best Practices of Statistics Finland, Statistics Finland, Helsinki, Finland, 2004.
  19. G. Thorvaldsen, “The Norwegian census: an international and long-term perspective,” History of the Family, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 33–45, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  20. J. Tayman, E. Schafer, and L. Carter, “The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: an evaluation using confidence intervals for subcounty areas,” Population Research and Policy Review, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1–20, 1998. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  21. M. George, S. Smith, D. Swanson, and J. Tayman, “Population projections,” in The Methods and Materials of Demography, J. S. Siegel and D. A. Swanson, Eds., pp. 561–601, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2004. View at Google Scholar
  22. Geoscience Australi, “Area of Australia—States and Territories,” 2012, http://www.ga.gov.au/education/geoscience-basics/dimensions/area-of-australia-states-and-territories.html.
  23. Business Insider, “11 More fascinating maps from the ultra-addictive MapsOnTheWeb yumblr,” 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com.au/11-more-incredible-maps-from-the-most-addictive-site-on-the-web-2013-6.
  24. J. Wilkinson, “Horizontal fiscal equalisation,” Briefing Paper 21/03, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Sydney, Australia, 2003. View at Google Scholar
  25. T. Wilson, “A multistate model for projecting regional populations by Indigenous status: an application to the Northern Territory, Australia,” Environment and Planning A, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 230–249, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  26. Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, “Statistical Local Area Population Projections, 2007 to 2027,” 2009, http://www.health.gov.au.
  27. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101. Cat No, 3222.0, ABS, Canberra, Australia, 2004, http://www.abs.gov.au.
  28. A. Taylor, J. Winter, and D. Carson, The “Big Factors” Affecting Demographic Change and Wellbeing at Territory Growth Towns, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Australia, 2012.
  29. T. Wilson and P. Rees, “Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review,” Population, Space and Place, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 337–360, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus