|
Driving factors | Potential effect on determinants of malaria
transmission | Impact on malaria risk in Canada | Impact on malaria transmission parameters (Figure 4) |
|
Climate change | Improved mosquito habitat in
Canada,
increased vector populations | Increased probability of
local transmission | ma |
g () |
Extension of the annual
period available for parasite replication in mosquitoes in Canada | Increased probability of
local transmission | ma |
g () |
Changes in the distribution
and/or incidence in countries outside of Canada to/from which Canadians
travel | Impact on the number of
imported cases
| or b |
Probability of local
transmission uncertain | or c |
|
Increasing immigration | Increased introduction of
infected individuals | Increased number of imported
cases
| b |
Increased probability of local
transmission | c |
|
Increasing international
travel | Increased introduction of
infected individuals | Increased number of imported
cases
| b |
Increased probability of
local transmission | c |
|
Drug resistance | Decreased efficacy of
prophylaxis | Increased incidence and
mortality | 1/r |
|
Delayed diagnosis | Increased gametocyte
incidence | Increased probability of
local transmission | 1/r |
|