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Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
Volume 2011, Article ID 543520, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/543520
Research Article

Epidemic Percolation Networks, Epidemic Outcomes, and Interventions

1Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-7232, USA
2Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
3Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA

Received 17 July 2010; Revised 3 November 2010; Accepted 23 December 2010

Academic Editor: Lauren Meyers

Copyright © 2011 Eben Kenah and Joel C. Miller. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Epidemic percolation networks (EPNs) are directed random networks that can be used to analyze stochastic “Susceptible-Infectious-Removed” (SIR) and “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic models, unifying and generalizing previous uses of networks and branching processes to analyze mass-action and network-based S(E)IR models. This paper explains the fundamental concepts underlying the definition and use of EPNs, using them to build intuition about the final outcomes of epidemics. We then show how EPNs provide a novel and useful perspective on the design of vaccination strategies.