Table of Contents
ISRN Public Health
Volume 2012 (2012), Article ID 294895, 6 pages
Research Article

Prognostic Factors of Short-Term Outcome of Low Back Pain in Patients Attending Health Insurance Clinics in Sharkia Governorate, Egypt

1Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Al-Azhar Faculty of Medicine, Nasr city, Cairo, Egypt
2Department of Family and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Taibah University, Madinah, Saudi Arabia

Received 21 August 2011; Accepted 13 September 2011

Academic Editors: B. Netterstrøm and K. M. Rospenda

Copyright © 2012 Khaled Kasim et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Objectives. This study aimed to determine the predictors of short-term outcome of low back pain (LBP) in a cohort of LBP patients. Subjects and Methods. A prospective cohort of 400 LBP patients who attending the health insurance clinics at Al-Hussinia city, Sharakia governorate, Egypt, were the subjects of this study. The data were collected by using a predesigned questionnaire at the index consultation. The outcome variable (good versus bad outcome), in terms of return to work, was collected one/two weeks later on the next consultation or by telephone. Statistical analyses including predictive regression analysis was done. Results. Out of the analysed 349 patients, there have been 202 patients (58%) with good back pain outcome. Logistic regression analyses showed that the factors most significantly associated with good back pain outcome were the recency of pain (OR = 4.85; 95% CI = 2.88–8.17), patient's occupation (OR = 2.11; 95% CI = 1.33–3.35) and absence of obesity (OR = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.15–5.22). Other significant less important factors were age of the patient, and site of pain. Conclusions. Reliable information on back pain related history, patient's occupation, body mass index and age of the patient at the index consultation are important to assess short-term prognosis in LBP patients.