Research Article

The Czech Republic SimSmoke: The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking Attributable Deaths in the Czech Republic

Table 1

Policies, description, and effect sizes of the SimSmoke model.

PolicyDescriptionPotential percentage effect*

Tax PolicyCigarette price index, taxes measure in absolute termsThrough price elasticity: −0.3 ages 15–24, −0.2 ages 25–34 and −0.1 ages, 35 and above

Smoke-Free air policies
Total worksite banBan in all areas6% with variations by age and gender
Weak worksite banSmoking limited to nonventilated common area2% with variations by age and gender
Restaurant total banBan in all indoor restaurants in all areas1% effect
Other places total banBan in 3 of 4 (malls, retail stores, public transportation, and elevators)1% effect
Enforcement and publicityGovernment agency is designated to enforce and publicize the lawsEffects reduced by 50% if 0 enforcement

Mass media campaigns
Highly publicized campaignCampaign publicized heavily on TV (at least two months of the year) and at least some other media3.25% effect (doubled when accompanied by other policies)
Low publicity campaignCampaign publicized only sporadically in newspaper, billboard, or other media0.5% effect (doubled when accompanied by local other policies)

Marketing ban
Comprehensive marketing banBan is applied television, radio, print, billboard, in-store displays, sponsorships, and free samples5% reduction in prevalence,
6% reduction in initiation,
3% increase in cessation rates
Total Advertising BanBan is applied all media television, radio, print, billboard3% reduction in prevalence,
4% reduction in initiation,
2% increase in cessation rates
Enforcement and publicityGovernment agency is designated to enforce the lawsEffects reduced by as much as 50% if 0 enforcement

Warning labels
StrongLabels are large, bold and graphic2% reduction in prevalence and initiation, 4% increase in cessation
WeakLaws cover less than 1/3 of package, not bold or graphic1% reduction in prevalence and initiation, 2% increase in cessation
PublicityHealth information is well publicized1% additional effect on prevalence and initiation rates
Cessation treatment policyComplete availability and reimbursement of pharmacological and behavioral treatments, quitlines, and brief interventions4.75% reduction in prevalence, 39% increase in cessation rate

Youth Access Restrictions
Strongly enforced & publicizedRegular compliance checks, heavy penalties, high visibility, vending machine and self-service bans30% reduction for age <16 in prevalence and initiation only, 20% reduction for ages 16-17 in prevalence and initiation only
Low enforcementNo compliance checks; weak penalties, and no publicity or bans3% reduction for age <16 in prevalence and initiation only, 2% reduction for ages 16-17 in prevalence and initiation only

*Unless otherwise specified, the same percentage effect is applied as a percentage reduction in the prevalence and initiation rate and a percentage increase in the cessation rate, and is applied to all ages and both genders. The effect sizes are shown to be relative to the absence of any policy. They are based on literature reviews, advice of an expert panel, and model validation.