Table of Contents
ISRN Applied Mathematics
Volume 2013, Article ID 125260, 7 pages
Research Article

A Combined Model of Global Cultivated Area Change and Prediction for Future: 1961–2020

1Key Research Base of Philosophy and Social Science, Center for China Farmers’ Development, Lin’an, Zhejiang 311300, China
2School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A & F University, Lin’an, Zhejiang 311300, China

Received 25 June 2013; Accepted 5 August 2013

Academic Editors: E. Di Nardo and S. He

Copyright © 2013 Cheng-Jun Wang and Xi-Min Fei. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


As a basic condition for food safety, cultivated area fluctuates in recent years. So, it has important political and economical significance to understand the future change trend of global cultivated area. Based on historical data in the past 50 years, deterministic time series analysis model, random time series analysis model, and combined model were established by using time series analysis method. By comparison, the combined model has the highest fitting and prediction accuracy, and it is suitable for the prediction of global cultivated area change trend. The global cultivated area will rise slightly in fluctuation in the near future driven by a combination of deterministic factors and random factors.