Alcohol-Attributable Fraction of Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in Russia

Table 1

Estimated effects (bivariate ARIMA model) of overall alcohol consumption on IHD mortality rates and estimation of alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF).

Age	Men				Women
	Model	Estimates	𝑃	AAF	Model	Estimates	𝑃	AAF
15–29	0, 1, 1*	0.072	0.000	0.620	1, 1, 0	0.055	0.021	0.530
30–44	0, 1, 1	0.059	0.000	0.550	1, 1, 0	0.089	0.000	0.640
45–59	0, 1, 0	0.053	0.000	0.510	1, 1, 0	0.071	0.000	0.620
60–74	0, 1, 0	0.038	0.000	0.400	1, 1, 0	0.031	0.000	0.330
75+	0, 1, 0	0.020	0.024	0.240	1, 1, 0	0.016	0.038	0.200
15–75+	1, 1, 0	0.039	0.000	0.411	1, 1, 0	0.027	0.000	0.307

∗The general form of nonseasonal ARIMA model is (𝑝, 𝑑, 𝑞), where 𝑝 isthe order of the autoregressive parameter, 𝑑 is the order of differencing, and 𝑞 is the order of the moving average parameter. 𝑄-test results for residuals are satisfactory in all models.