Range Expansion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe Is Promoted by Climate Change

Figure 3

Predicted habitat suitability for Ambrosia artemisiifolia (a) under current climatic conditions (b) and (c) for 2080 considering the B2 IPCC Scenario (d) and (e) for 2080 considering the A1 IPCC Scenario and (f) and (g) for 2080 considering the A2 IPCC Scenario. Shown are the modelling results based on the North American GBIF data. Consensus maps of the ten “best” algorithms (ANN, CTA, FDA, GAM, GBM, GLM, MARS, ME, RF, SVM) weighted by their AUC values. For the future Scenarios the consensus maps include the modelling results of three different GCMs (CCCMA, CSIRO, HADCM3). The threshold for the binary results (𝑃 fair = 0.645 − minimizing the difference between sensitivity and specificity) is based on the evaluation of the consensus map of the ten “best” algorithms projected on North America using the GBIF test data (30% of the North American GBIF records for A. artemisiifolia chosen at random and not used for training). Projection: Europe Albers Equal Area Conic.