Impacts of the Recent Expansion of the Sugarcane Sector on Municipal per Capita Income in São Paulo State

Table 7

Impact on real per capita GDP (in $ of 2008) of a 10 p.p. permanent increase in the share of sugarcane relative to the municipal area given over to agriculture.

	Average municipal effect		Accumulated average municipal effect
	Direct	Indirect	Direct	Indirect
Contemporaneous	61.91	−29.10	61.91	−29.10
Years forward
1	30.55	−22.48	92.45	−51.57
2	14.16	−17.68	106.61	−69.25
3	5.78	−14.08	112.39	−83.33
4	1.64	−11.32	114.03	−94.65
5	−0.28	−9.16	113.74	−103.81
6	−1.07	−7.44	112.67	−111.25
7	−1.30	−6.07	111.37	−117.32
8	−1.27	−4.95	110.09	−122.26
9	−1.13	−4.04	108.97	−126.31
10	−0.96	−3.31	108.01	−129.62

Source: research results.
Indirect effects were divided by 15 in order to turn the results comparable at the municipal level.