Playing with Fire: Internal Devaluation for the GIPSI Countries

Table 3

Episodes of debt, analysis of periods P1 (2004–2007) and P2 (2008–2012_f).

(a) Differentiating episodes by the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio

P1
Episodes
Country	Change in debt to GDP (percent)	GDP growth (percent)	Inflation (percent)	Primary balance; (% of GDP)
Austria	−5.08	3.10	1.90	0.28
Belgium	−14.39	2.68	2.30	3.48
Finland	−9.34	4.18	1.20	4.17
France	1.01	2.28	2.08	−0.34
Germany	0.96	2.23	0.90	0.53
The Netherlands	−6.71	2.88	1.68	1.69
Average	−5.59	2.89	1.68	1.63
Episodes
Country	Change in debt to GDP (percent)	GDP growth (percent)	Inflation (percent)	Primary balance; (% of GDP)
Greece	10.05	3.93	2.63	−1.72
Ireland	−5.71	5.28	2.20	2.53
Italy	−0.82	1.63	2.08	1.37
Portugal	8.87	1.55	2.65	−1.81
Spain	−12.50	3.63	3.93	2.83
Average	−0.02	3.20	2.70	0.64
Average3	−6.34	3.51	2.73	2.24

(b) Differentiating episodes by the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio

P2
Episodes
Country	Change in debt to GDP (percent)	GDP growth (percent)	Inflation (percent)	Primary balance; (% of GDP)
Austria	14.11	0.64	1.78	−0.86
Belgium	15.03	0.48	1.88	−0.14
Finland	17.42	−0.28	2.12	−1.16
France	25.75	0.14	1.42	−3.16
Germany	17.68	0.78	1.06	0.35
The Netherlands	22.91	−0.04	1.22	−2.19
Average	18.82	0.29	1.58	−1.19
Episodes
Country	Change in debt to GDP (percent)	GDP growth (percent)	Inflation (percent)	Primary balance; (% of GDP)
Greece	63.28	−4.00	1.68	−4.75
Ireland	92.76	−1.30	−1.72	−12.04
Italy	23.25	−1.18	1.68	0.88
Portugal	50.80	−1.30	1.00	−3.37
Spain	54.39	−0.90	0.96	−6.49
Average	56.90	−1.74	0.72	−5.16

Source: own elaboration, data from IMF [9], Eurostat, and ECB SDW.