Table of Contents
International Scholarly Research Notices
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 6182492, 16 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6182492
Research Article

Modeling the Impact of Bed-Net Use and Treatment on Malaria Transmission Dynamics

1Department of General Studies, School of Health Technology, Jahun, Nigeria
2Department of Mathematical Sciences, Bayero University Kano, Kano, Nigeria

Correspondence should be addressed to Saminu Iliyasu Bala

Received 19 March 2017; Revised 23 May 2017; Accepted 8 June 2017; Published 1 August 2017

Academic Editor: Marcos Amaku

Copyright © 2017 Bello Gimba and Saminu Iliyasu Bala. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

We modeled the impact of bed-net use and insecticide treated nets (ITNs), temperature, and treatment on malaria transmission dynamics using ordinary differential equations. To achieve this we formulated a simple model of mosquito biting rate that depends on temperature and usage of insecticides treated bed nets. We conducted global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHC) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) in order to find the most effective parameters that affect malaria transmission dynamics. We established the existence of the region where the model is epidemiologically feasible. We conducted the stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium by the threshold parameter. We found the condition for the existence of the endemic equilibrium and provided necessary condition for its stability. Our results show that the peak of mosquitoes biting rate occurs at a range of temperature values not on a single value as previously reported in literature. The results also show that the combination of treatment and ITNs usage is the most effective intervention strategy towards control and eradication of malaria transmissions. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that the biting rate and the mosquitoes death rates are the most important parameters in the dynamics of malaria transmission.