FLUed: A Novel Four-Layer Model for Simulating Epidemic Dynamics and Assessing Intervention Policies

Table 3

Observation index values according to different policy activation scenarios during swine-origin H1N1 influenza A outbreak in Taichung.

Activation time	Evaluation index	Transmission rate reduction (%)
		0%	30%	50%	70%	90%
(a) Scenario number 1; Previrus appearance	Total cases	2,190,247	1,672,733	1,112,428	485,801	8
	New infected cases at epidemic curve peak	172,083	114,556	64,551	12,186	8
	Week number of epidemic curve peak	61	83	119	284	1
	(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	7.86%	5.23%	2.95%	0.56%	0%
	(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	100%	76.37%	50.79%	22.18%	0%
(b) Scenario number 2; After 50 cases are diagnosed	Total cases	2,190,247	1,672,266	1,117,265	487,030	767
	New infected cases at epidemic curve peak	172,083	113,760	64,598	12,200	120
	Week number of epidemic curve peak	61	73	93	180	28
	(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	7.86%	5.19%	2.95%	0.56%	0%
	(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	100%	76.35%	51.01%	22.24%	0.04%
(c) Scenario number 3; After 100 cases are diagnosed	Total cases	2,190,247	1,671,019	1,120,702	488,492	1,723
	New infected cases at epidemic curve peak	172,083	113,672	64,430	12,194	273
	Week number of epidemic curve peak	61	72	90	169	29
	(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	7.86%	5.19%	2.94%	0.56%	0%
	(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	100%	76.29%	51.17%	22.30%	0.08%
(d) Scenario number 4; After 200 cases are diagnosed	Total cases	2,190,247	1,674,627	1,125,289	491,418	3,668
	New infected cases at epidemic curve peak	172,083	113,592	64,556	12,198	520
	Week number of epidemic curve peak	61	71	88	158	32
	(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	7.86%	5.19%	2.95%	0.56%	0%
	(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	100%	76.46%	51.38%	22.44%	0.17%
(e) Scenario number 5; After 400 cases are diagnosed	Total cases	2,190,247	1,677,338	1,132,127	49,486	7,424
	New infected cases at epidemic curve peak	172,083	112,155	64,605	12,188	1,057
	Week number of epidemic curve peak	61	70	85	147	34
	(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	7.86%	5.12%	2.95%	0.56%	0%
	(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)	100%	76.58%	51.69%	22.67%	0.34%