Uncertainty Analysis of Multiple Hydrologic Models Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method

Table 4

The comparison of BMA(3) and BMA(9) in the mean prediction and 90% uncertainty interval for three flow ranges.

Indices	High flow		Medium flow		Low flow
	BMA(3)	BMA(9)	BMA(3)	BMA(9)	BMA(3)	BMA(9)
Calibration period
Mean prediction
𝑅^2 (%)	93.01	91.74	32.28	52.76	95.83	96.39
DRMS (m^3/s)	78.15	84.90	23.24	19.41	7.81	7.27
RE (%)	15.48	17.44	35.66	21.51	69.29	46.73
90% uncertainty interval
CR (%)	88.74	92.05	45.91	91.32	27.40	90.75
𝐵 (m^3/s)	273.17	342.61	40.34	74.97	6.39	19.23
𝐷 (m^3/s)	59.78	63.66	18.33	15.44	6.21	5.02
Validation period
Mean prediction
𝑅^2 (%)	89.00	85.47	22.03	41.82	93.66	94.94
DRMS (m^3/s)	92.51	106.35	19.01	16.42	6.87	6.14
RE (%)	22.49	27.68	31.35	17.66	67.48	45.11
90% uncertainty interval
CR (%)	85.33	88.00	46.76	90.81	28.60	90.02
𝐵 (m^3/s)	252.88	282.17	34.97	61.22	7.19	18.45
𝐷 (m^3/s)	65.67	66.12	14.90	14.03	5.99	4.82