Adaptive Combination Forecasting Model Based on Area Correlation Degree with Application to China’s Energy Consumption

Table 1

Forecasting results of China’s energy consumption based on individual model in 2005~2010.

Year	Actual; value	BP; forecasting	BP; APE^a; (%)	GM; forecasting	GM; APE; (%)	TESM; forecasting	TESM; APE; (%)	PTEM; forecasting	PTEM; APE; (%)
2005	224682	222677.2	0.8923	219684.8	2.2241	222220	1.09577	214791.6	4.402
2006	246270	249307.2	1.2333	237583.9	3.5271	251050	1.94096	232358.8	5.6487
2007	265583	262882.2	1.0169	256941.3	3.2539	275170	3.60979	251789.4	5.1937
2008	285000	281967.7	1.064	277875.8	2.4997	294190	3.22456	273195	4.1421
2009	306600	311303	1.5339	300516	1.9843	311730	1.67319	296687.2	3.2331
2010	325000	329039	1.2428	325000.9	0.000265	331770	2.08308	322377.7	0.8069
MAPE (%)		1.1639		2.2482		2.2712		3.9044

aAPE: absolute percentage error.