Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process
Table 5
Prediction of vehicle ownership per 1000 people and total ownership to 2025 in China.
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
GDP per capita
8451.81
9043.44
9631.26
10257.30
10924.02
11601.31
12320.59
13084.47
13895.70
14757.24
Population
1381.53
1389.82
1398.16
1406.55
1414.99
1423.48
1427.75
1432.03
1434.89
1437.76
Vehicle per 1000 (unit)
133.60
148.56
164.01
181.07
199.90
219.73
241.53
249.02
256.74
264.70
Total vehicle (million units)
184.57
206.48
229.32
254.69
282.86
312.78
344.84
356.60
368.39
380.57
GDP indicator (in international dollar) up to 2025 is obtained from the paper of Perkins and Rawski [15]; population forecasting data (in million people) is obtained from the paper of Dadao [16].
