Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Journal of Advanced Transportation
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 5798174, 9 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/5798174
Research Article

Setting Road Safety Targets in Cambodia: A Methodological Demonstration Using the Latent Risk Time Series Model

1VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands
2SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, The Hague, Netherlands
3Foundation Road Safety for All, Voorburg, Netherlands
4Ministry of Public Works and Transport, General Department of Transport, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
5Handicap International, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Correspondence should be addressed to Jacques J. F. Commandeur

Received 11 July 2016; Accepted 4 September 2016; Published 9 January 2017

Academic Editor: Sze Chun Wong

Copyright © 2017 Jacques J. F. Commandeur et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. WHO, Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland, 2013.
  2. WHO, World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland, 2004.
  3. E. Kopits and M. Cropper, “Traffic fatalities and economic growth,” Policy Research Working Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA, 2003. View at Google Scholar
  4. Royal Government of Cambodia/ National Road Safety Committee, Four-Year Report 2006–2009. Prepared for the First Global Ministerial Conference on Road Safety, Federation, Moscow, Russian, 2009.
  5. Ung Chun Hour, Country Report on Road Safety in Cambodia, Royal Government of Cambodia, Ministry of Public Works and Transport, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 2007.
  6. OECD/ITF, Towards Zero: Ambitious Road Safety Targets and the Safe System Approach, OECD, Paris, France, 2008.
  7. OECD, Safety on Roads: What's the Vision?OECD, Paris, France, 2002.
  8. R. Elvik, “Quantified road safety targets. An assessment of evaluation methodology,” Tech. Rep. 539, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway, 2001. View at Google Scholar
  9. S. C. Wong, N. N. Sze, H. F. Yip, B. P. Y. Loo, W. T. Hung, and H. K. Lo, “Association between setting quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 997–1005, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. S. C. Wong and N. N. Sze, “Is the effect of quantified road safety targets sustainable?” Safety Science, vol. 48, no. 9, pp. 1182–1188, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  11. R. E. Allsop, N. N. Sze, and S. C. Wong, “An update on the association between setting quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 1279–1283, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  12. W. Weijermars and P. Wesemann, “Road safety forecasting and ex-ante evaluation of policy in the Netherlands,” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 52, pp. 64–72, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  13. E. Hauer, “On prediction in road safety,” Safety Science, vol. 48, no. 9, pp. 1111–1122, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  14. P. Wittenberg, K. Sever, S. Knoth, N. Sahin, and J. Bondarenko, “Determining quantitative road safety targets by applying statistical prediction techniques and a multi-stage adjustment procedure,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 50, pp. 566–577, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  15. J. Broughton and J. Knowles, “Providing the numerical context for British casualty reduction targets,” Safety Science, vol. 48, no. 9, pp. 1134–1141, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. S. Oppe, “Macroscopic models for traffic and traffic safety,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 225–232, 1989. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. F. Van den Bossche, G. Wets, and T. Brijs, “A regression model with ARIMA errors to investigate the frequency and severity of road traffic accidents,” Tech. Rep. RA-2004-35, Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid, Diepenbeek, Belgium, 2004. View at Google Scholar
  18. P. Fournier and R. Simard, “The DRAG-2 model for Quebec,” in Structural Road Accident Models; The International DRAG Family, M. Gaudry and S. Lassarre, Eds., pp. 37–66, Pergamon, 2002. View at Google Scholar
  19. F. D. Bijleveld, J. J. F. Commandeur, P. Gould, and S. J. Koopman, “Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, vol. 171, no. 1, pp. 265–277, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  20. C. Antoniou and G. Yannis, “State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece,” in Proceedings of the Transport Research Arena (TRA '12), P. Papaioannou, Ed., Athens, Greece, April 2012, Procedia—Social and Behavioral Sciences, vol. 48, pp. 1589–1598, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  21. E. Dupont, J. J. F. Commandeur, S. Lassarre et al., “Latent risk and trend models for the evolution of annual fatality numbers in 30 European countries,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 71, pp. 327–336, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  22. J. J. F. Commandeur, F. D. Bijleveld, R. Bergel-Hayat, C. Antoniou, G. Yannis, and E. Papadimitriou, “On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 60, pp. 424–434, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  23. B. F. Corben, D. B. Logan, L. Fanciulli, R. Farley, and I. Cameron, “Strengthening road safety strategy development ‘Towards Zero’ 2008–2020–Western Australia’s experience schientific research on road safety management SWOV workshop 16 and 17 November 2009,” Safety Science, vol. 48, no. 9, pp. 1085–1097, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  24. J. Durbin and S. J. Koopman, Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods, Oxford University Press, 2nd edition, 2012.
  25. A. C. Harvey, Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1989.
  26. J. J. Commandeur and S. J. Koopman, An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis, Practical Econometrics, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2007. View at MathSciNet
  27. S. Siegrist, “Towards a method to forecast the effectiveness of national road safety programmes,” Safety Science, vol. 48, no. 9, pp. 1106–1110, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. N. N. Sze, S. C. Wong, and C. Y. Lee, “The likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: a binary logistic regression model for possible factors,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 73, pp. 242–251, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus